Into The Wild

From Low Carbon to High Mineral

Is the green transition that green?

It is safe to assume that by now, every person on the planet experienced the effects of climate change in some form over the past few years. Whether it was during last summer in the Northern Hemisphere, when the excessive heat kept everyone up at night, with Europeans standing their ground in their decision not to install air conditioning in their homes, while Americans reached for their remotes and repeatedly adjusted the temperature until it plummeted to 68 Fahrenheit, causing pipes to freeze, or perhaps it was last winter in the Southern Hemisphere where the warming ocean expressed its discontent against our man-made, ever-increasing, suffocating greenhouse gas emissions by triggering intensified hurricanes that, in turn, destroyed crops and farmlands, cutting food supplies to thousands of homes.

Climate change is unfair. Not because we will need to give up wood-burning ovens that produce the pizzas that Gen Zs queue for hours for or that we will no longer purchase cheap clothing made by workers who earn a day's wage equivalent to what we spend on organic, locally baked, low-carb, gluten-free bread. Not even because we will need to reduce our consumption of guacamole, made from water-addicted avocados imported from Mexico via cargo planes, to arrive in time for our Happy Hour. No, climate change is unfair as even using genuinely engineered, well-designed green technologies to mitigate emissions and prepare developed countries to adapt to natural disasters unavoidably leads to adverse effects on the developing world's political, economic, and social landscape.

It's ironic that developing countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, are not responsible for the emissions that cause climate change. However, they are the ones most affected by its devastating consequences (ie: disrupted rainfall patterns). Adding insult to injury, these very countries have to mine the natural resources and minerals needed to produce green technologies for industrialized nations. Said nations aim to scale up green tech to mitigate their emissions, instead of trying to stop the emissions through implementing a complicated and confusing circular business model (which, granted, results in its own set of challenges). This burden falls on African countries, as they must balance their own growth with the increasing mineral demands required to address environmental issues that are not of their making. As icing on the cake, these resource-rich Sub-Saharan countries no longer possess ownership of their mines. China bought most of these assets in exchange for loans with more attractive conditions compared to those of foreign aid agencies such as the World Bank and IMF. This begs the question: is the green transition that green, or is sustainability designed by and for developed economies?

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Hybrid cars, electric bicycles, solar farms, carbon capture, smart meters, efficient buildings; green tech is engineering every necessary machinery needed by governments to reach their Net Zero by 2050 target, a promise made as a result of the defining treaty of the 21st century known as the Paris Agreement. To put into perspective the significance of gathering more than 194 states and the EU together to agree that the quality of life and the health of the Earth were better before the start of the industrial revolution and to acknowledge that today’s surface temperature should only be 2 degrees warmer than those levels; the last time an international gathering of that magnitude came together was in 1944, during the end of WWII, at the Bretton Woods Conference. At the time, 44 nations came together to discuss how to run a smooth global economy and reconstruct a literally bombed Europe after the Axis powers and the Allied powers were done disputing the definition of the borders of their lands.

To understand how greening economies can exacerbate poverty in developing countries, it is essential to first distinguish between what makes a resource non-renewable and what makes it renewable, and to link this to their respective usage.Renewables are natural resources that are continuously replenished through cyclic movement, providing a consistent and reliable supply to humanity. An example of this is water. However, it is important to note that even water faces its own set of worrying challenges, such as growing scarcity of fresh drinking water. Non-renewables, on the other hand, are, but not limited to, rare earth elements like cobalt, copper, and lithium. Considered today’s most valuable resources, they are the core elements of all-electric vehicles, clean energy technologies, batteries, and defense equipment. To make the green transition a reality, we need to mine these minerals at an unprecedented pace and in massive quantities to eliminate the reliance of our industries on fossil fuels and secure national security. Putting it simply: no cobalt equals no green transition. As we transition from using oil and gas, we become increasingly dependent on rare earth elements. Unfortunately, these elements are becoming less sustainable to extract, and their sourcing is becoming more unethical due to the unstable political situations in the countries where they are located.

Sub-Saharan African countries are home to the largest mineral reserves on earth. Simply put, the industrialized world we know today would not exist without Africa, something European countries caught wind of fairly early on if the Scramble for Africa period taught us anything. To this day, China owns 98% of mines containing these minerals, spread across the continent from DRC to other countries. Not only does this feed geopolitical tensions with Taiwan, the US, and others, but it also increases the dependence of the entire world on one single leader, Xi Jinping, who will supply the whole global energy transition. At present, it is imperative that Beijing's mining practices in Africa meet spotless ethical standards and protocols. Western corporations that ventured into Asia let too many scandals pass by (ie: 2013 Rana Plaza) before they got their act together and formulated stricter environmental, social, and governance (ESG) terms. Even now, the implementation of these terms is lagging. China holds the opportunity to set an example for safe and respectful mining processes.

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Growing stakeholder expectations for transparency and accountability nudged corporations into cleaning their supply chain. The challenge with China is that geopolitical aspirations aside, similarly to India, it is developing at an unprecedented pace. Both nations must keep up with their rapid development by investing in advanced technology to support life and provide access to quality education and healthcare services. Addressing China's mineral ownership aspirations requires careful consideration, as its energy needs are driven not only by population growth but also by its energy-intensive manufacturing sector that is soaring to satisfy the consumerism of the rest of the world. It is a delicate issue. It's a fact that the world will continue to expand even as household sizes decrease, particularly with the rise of BRICS nations. Sub-Saharan Africa's mineral-rich countries face increasing pressure to mine more under challenging working conditions. It is pretty frustrating that the local economic development does not reap the benefits of the revenue generated from the mines. This is because China's ownership entitles them to that income, and local corruption draining the remaining cash. Going forward, creating and managing a natural resource supply chain that is respectful and inclusive is as much of a head-scratcher as deciphering the plot of the movie Inception.

It could be argued that African countries missed an opportunity to become global suppliers of green energy during the transition to sustainable energy. Some believe China's considerable financial commitment toward 98% of Sub-Saharan Africa's resources could be an example of the 'Resource Curse.’ Others suggested that by engaging with Beijing, Sub-Saharan Africa could achieve modern infrastructure, industrialization, and development, leading to higher GDP. This partnership with China is viewed as an alternative to strict concessions, repayment periods, and potential Western influence from foreign aid.

Corruption is the most significant barrier to progress, as it drains resources from innovation, reform, and justice. There was a missed opportunity for African countries to secure a dependable income stream for the future by not taking advantage of the green transition and providing minerals for eco-friendly technology. However, in light of the current corruption deeply rooted in many of Sub-Sahara’s countries, perhaps it was for the best. In the event of a collaborative effort between African nations, the West, and the East to establish a reliable source of cobalt and lithium, it is conceivable that corrupt political leaders may divert substantial financial benefits, thereby depriving local communities of crucial government investments in fundamental areas such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare. This diversion of funds could support militias utilizing fear and violence to hold on to power. An example of this phenomenon was the ‘blood diamond’ trade in Sierra Leone which led to the country’s civil war. As a result, It is worth considering that the development of green technology could offer distress to many resource-rich countries

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China's significant share in the minerals market may be seen as a manifestation of the 'resource curse' in Sub-Saharan Africa. Local governments eagerly formed alliances with China to develop infrastructure without relying on the West. It is understandable for African nations to explore alternative business relationships. It is worth noting that the violence, injustices, and poverty that have plagued certain regions for years can be traced back to the colonialism of European powers such as England, France, and Spain. Interestingly, these same powers now contribute funds to international foreign aid agencies, which in turn finance development programs in the very regions that they were responsible for impoverishing. With that in mind, many African countries would want to venture out and sell their mines in exchange for much-needed infrastructures and independence from Western influence. However, in some cases, China, as a result of construction and loan agreements, brought in their workers for the mines, resulting in a loss of employment opportunities for numerous individuals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Black markets emerged where illegal miners started selling illegally sourced minerals to Chinese companies, and total environmental degradation around mine sites materialized. Many Sub-Saharan countries have fallen prey to the infamous 'resource curse' due to their haste in finding new partners. Initially, these countries had the upper hand by possessing all the minerals within their geographical boundaries. However, in their pursuit of quick cash inflows and rapid development projects, they prioritized short-term gains over long-term, incremental projects.

China’s participation in mining projects in African countries offers an opportunity for more flexible negotiations, as the nation imposes fewer restrictions on where funds can be allocated. However, if the borrower defaults on the debt, Beijing may acquire ownership of more mines as collateral. These attractive terms incentivized a lot of the countries across Africa to separate from the West. Perhaps there is no ‘resource curse’ but just too many wounds from colonialism that did not and will not heal, making the current model of foreign aid less attractive. It could be argued that linking development exclusively to a Western model is the primary constraint of foreign assistance, which may explain its limited success thus far. After all, indigenous groups across the world have proved they know best how to take care of their lands based on their experience; perhaps there is a need for an intermediary institution between foreign aid and African governments that can function as a mediator and ensure that the local communities are heard, while also making financial institutions feel more secure about their loans.

Economic diversification is a useful tool for conducting independent affairs, reducing reliance on Western foreign aid, and severing ties with Eastern investors. Many locals in Sub-Saharan Africa may prefer not to participate in mining practices, as they primarily benefit the needs of developed countries. Instead, they may have a strong inclination to cultivate agriculture and other trades within their locality to broaden their economy and move away from relying solely on mining. If this were the case, not wanting to be involved in the green transition by supplying the West with crucial minerals is African countries' right. Many aspects of their economies, political and social structures need to be built from the ground up. Starting from scratch is a great opportunity to build a sustainable foundation of society adaptable to climate change induced natural disasters.

The global shift towards a green transition is a gradual process that will likely extend over several decades. This is partly due to the challenge of aligning the agendas of various governments, but also because it will take significant time and effort to dismantle old systems and implement new, sustainable mechanisms. The African continent's competitive advantage lies in the opportunity to start from scratch and build new systems that prioritize sustainability. It's challenging to provide a definitive answer on whether the green transition is truly sustainable, which presents an uncomfortable dilemma. If the world doesn't entirely switch to renewable energy, it will face significant, yet surmountable, challenges. Although humans will survive, many ecosystems will perish, and nature will suffer. However, if the world transitions towards global green energy, it will come at the expense of Africa's development. For now, it's either/or.

The challenge of our Time is providing clean water, food, housing, and jobs for all the world's populations while respecting the Earth’s natural resources capital and unique ecosystems with the backdrop of the survival of humanity against climate change. Our planet survived and adapted to five mass extinctions, of which our beloved dinosaurs. Humans adapted to plagues, two World Wars, the threat of a nuclear war and questionable presidencies. It is fair to say that the human species will pull through by compromising on aspects of day-to-day life, probably at the expense of the underserved, underrepresented, and marginalized, bearing any asteroid hit. Not even then, as Elon Musk and his engineers would likely ship most of us to Mars (by "us" it is implied "those who can afford to"), rename that planet Tatooine, and ask Starbucks to open a shop with view of the Moon. The challenge of our generation is coming together to act in symbiosis towards attaining a global green transition, all the while realizing, accepting, and respecting that the African continent is not just a source of minerals; it is a collective of unique countries whose local cultures and identity hold a role that extends beyond securing our electronic dependency. Currently, it is safe to conclude that, no, the green transition is definitely not green, not as long as producing and scaling up green technologies comes at the expense of local development in many countries of the world.

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References

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